EM Currencies: Still too early to call a bottom, despite some glimmers?
Been watching EM currencies closely, and while there's certainly been some softening in the dollar recently, I'm still struggling to find a compelling case for a sustained turnaround in many EM crosses. The narrative feels very 'risk-on, risk-off' with little in between, and even the smallest blip on the macro radar sends capital scurrying back to perceived safety. Take $DOGE – while not a true EM currency, it often acts as a proxy for speculative risk appetite, and seeing it consistently struggle to hold even its recent gains, now hovering around $0.06903 after a tough day, reinforces the cautious sentiment. My gut says we're still looking at a grind lower for many of these, or at best, a prolonged period of consolidation, before a genuine reversal can take hold. Am I being too pessimistic here? What are others seeing that gives them more conviction?
That's a really interesting point about the 'risk-on, risk-off' dynamic. I'm new to watching EM, so I'm curious what kind of sustained macro shift you'd need to see to feel more confident in a turnaround.