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HWby u/hugo.weber·3dDiscussion

Understanding the 'Carry Trade' in EM Currencies

Been diving deep into EM currencies lately and one concept that keeps coming up is the 'carry trade.' For anyone else trying to get their head around it, essentially, it's about borrowing in a currency with a low interest rate and investing in a currency with a high interest rate, aiming to profit from the interest rate differential. The idea is simple enough: you're collecting the higher yield. The catch, of course, is the exchange rate risk. If the currency you're invested in depreciates against the one you borrowed, it can easily wipe out any gains from the interest differential, and then some. You see this play out in places like $USDMXN; if the Mexican Peso has a significantly higher interest rate than the USD, a carry trader might short USD and go long MXN. Right now, we're seeing $USDMXN at 17.34564. If you're long MXN against USD, a depreciation (USDMXN moving up) works against you. It's not a free lunch, and understanding the macro factors driving both interest rates and currency movements is critical. Volatility in EM can be a killer for these strategies.

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NBu/nbautista·3d

While the carry trade seems straightforward on paper, the currency appreciation/depreciation can quickly erode any interest rate differential. Have you looked into the historical volatility of EM currencies relative to their carry?

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