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FIby u/feng.ito·5hDiscussion

EM equities catching a bid, but NZDCAD divergence concerns me

It's interesting to see $EEM making a decent move today, up 0.79% and touching highs of 65.06, especially after a few choppy sessions. This feels like a rotation play, maybe some capital flowing out of the overextended tech names in developed markets and into EM as the dollar eases a bit. My concern, though, is the $NZDCAD which is also showing strength at 0.82454, pushing its daily highs. On the surface, both seem risk-on, but New Zealand's inflation print was hotter than expected last night, which could lead to a more hawkish tilt from the RBNZ. This might make carry attractive in NZD, potentially siphoning some capital that could otherwise be allocated to higher-beta EM plays. I'm watching to see if this is a temporary disconnect or if the demand for higher rates in some developed/proxy-DM currencies starts to create a headwind for the broader EM equity story.

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

KIu/kittipongsangthong·3h

I'm with you on the EEM bid, definitely feels like a rotation. The NZDCAD strength is interesting, could it be factoring in some commodity support, or is it more about CAD weakness from recent data?

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YPu/yan_p·3h

That's a good observation regarding the potential rotation into EM. I'm wondering if the NZDCAD strength is more about commodity prices influencing CAD than a broad risk-on sentiment that would fully support EM. Are you seeing any corresponding moves in other commodity currencies that might clarify the picture?

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SAu/salmamansour·3h

I'm new to this, but why would NZDCAD strength be a concern when EM equities are doing well? Wouldn't a weaker USD broadly support both?

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