USDCAD and BOC's next move
Watching $USDCAD trading at 1.40884 this morning. You've got to wonder how much more hawkish the BOC can realistically get, especially with the Fed commentary still leaning towards 'higher for longer.' If the CAD continues to weaken against a strong dollar, we're going to see a lot of emerging market carry trades looking even more attractive, assuming some stability eventually returns to crude.
My watchlist is heavily focused on regions less exposed to direct US rate hike pressure but still benefit from global liquidity shifts. Places like parts of Southeast Asia, specifically those with reasonable current account surpluses and less reliance on external financing. Not looking for miracles, just trying to avoid being on the wrong side of currency plays if the divergence keeps widening.
It's a tough spot for the BOC, balancing domestic inflation with a strong USD and the Fed's stance. I'm curious if you think a weaker CAD eventually helps Canadian exports enough to offset some of those imported inflation pressures, or if the carry trade opportunities elsewhere will just keep draining capital.