Thoughts on EM FX correlation to commodities vs. US rates

I've been wrestling with how much weight to give the commodity supercycle narrative versus the relentless march of US rate hikes when looking at EM currencies. On one hand, you see a resource-rich country like Australia, where the $AUD is holding its own around the 0.0936 mark today, despite a pretty strong dollar environment globally. That feels like commodity tailwinds at play, especially with the range it's been in lately (0.0911–0.1028), suggesting some underlying strength. But then you look at other EM currencies, particularly in regions less tied to hard commodities, and they just seem to be getting absolutely clobbered by the carry trade unwinding and the perceived safety of USD assets. Is it just me, or are we perhaps overstating the commodity impact for the broader EM FX basket, especially when higher-for-longer US rates are the dominant theme?

It feels like there's a divergence happening within EM FX itself – those with strong commodity exports might see some resilience, but the rest are just getting squeezed. I'm wondering if relying too heavily on a broad 'commodity supercycle' thesis for all EM FX is becoming a bit of a blind spot when the Fed's stance is so clear. Am I missing something crucial here? Please push back.