Thoughts on $XLE vs. Energy Fundamentals Today

It's always interesting to see the disconnect sometimes, or maybe I'm missing something crucial here. $XLE is up to 63.75, showing some decent strength today after opening around 63.69, even touching 64.7 earlier. The general consensus I'm picking up on is still pretty bullish on energy, given a few factors, but I'm finding myself wondering if the current price action is fully justified by the underlying news flow and demand picture right now. Are we seeing a bit of 'buy the rumor, sell the news' or is there a longer-term structural shift that's not fully reflected in the daily headlines? I feel like the current levels, while not extreme, are starting to price in a more aggressive short-term demand spike than I'm personally seeing. Convince me I'm wrong on this.