On-chain metrics vs. pure price action in current crypto climate

Been thinking a lot lately about how much weight to give on-chain metrics when the market feels so… synthetic. We've got $USDTRY just sitting around 46.9432, showing very little daily range, while parts of crypto can still swing 10-20% on what feels like pure sentiment. Is the era of deep dives into wallet flows and exchange balances really still as predictive as it once was, or are we back to pure technicals and understanding the macro narrative?

It feels like a lot of the 'smart money' on-chain signals get front-run or just don't have the same impact they used to. I find myself leaning more on simple price action and volume profiles, ignoring a lot of the more complex indicators. Am I missing something crucial here, or has the market evolved past the point where on-chain provides a genuine edge? Open to being wrong, tell me why.