Thoughts on rising inventories and copper's next move
Watching the latest inventory data coming out of LME sheds. Seems like stockpiles are ticking up, specifically for copper. Given the recent softness in manufacturing PMIs globally, this isn't entirely surprising, but the pace is worth noting.
Combined with a slightly firmer dollar after the recent jobless claims data, the short-term picture for copper looks a bit less bullish than it did a few weeks ago. I'm thinking about how much of this is just seasonal noise post-holiday vs. a genuine demand slowdown. On my watchlist, I'm now leaning towards a more neutral stance, perhaps looking for a retest of the lower bound of the recent consolidation range before considering any long positions. No strong convictions yet, but the inventory build is a yellow flag.
This is a great point. I've been so focused on the demand side from EVs and green tech, I hadn't really considered the impact of manufacturing slowdowns on existing stockpiles. Do you think this inventory build-up could lead to a more sustained price correction, or is it likely to be a temporary dip given the long-term demand outlook?