On Oil Futures and the 'Perpetual Premium' Myth
Been following the crude complex for a while, and it seems like there's a persistent narrative that backwardation is the natural state, the 'healthy' market, and anything else is a sign of fundamental weakness. While I agree that sharp contango can signal oversupply or lack of immediate demand, I'm increasingly skeptical of the idea that a perpetual premium for front-month contracts is some kind of intrinsic law of commodities. It feels more like a self-fulfilling prophecy or a psychological bias, especially when you look at how often storage costs and the convenience yield are cited as the only drivers. Are we perhaps underestimating how much speculative money, chasing short-term gains, actually flattens the curve or even inverts it, irrespective of true underlying supply/demand dynamics? It feels like the market's collective memory is short, forgetting periods where the long end of the curve offered consistent value. Or am I just seeing ghosts? Push back on this, please.
That's an interesting take. I've always heard the 'healthy market' perspective, so it's good to hear a different viewpoint. What do you see as the key drivers of this perceived 'perpetual premium' myth?