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ARby u/anna.rossi·1dDiscussion

Is the 'stickiness' of inflation getting overstated in market narratives?

It seems a significant portion of current market sentiment, particularly the 'higher for longer' rate narrative, is predicated on the idea of highly sticky inflation. While we've certainly seen services inflation remain elevated, the speed at which some of the commodity components reversed course in previous cycles suggests that the market might be overstating the persistence of inflation in its current pricing. For example, if we look at the relatively subdued move in $MGC despite other indices rallying, it makes me wonder if there's an over-reliance on the lagging indicators. Curious if anyone else thinks we're too focused on the rearview mirror here?

4 comments · 1 points

4 Comments

RGu/rossi_greta·1d

I agree that the 'stickiness' narrative might be overstated. Commodity prices have shown they can reverse quickly, and the market often anchors to the most recent trend too heavily.

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LOu/larissa.oliveira·1d

The 'stickiness' narrative has merit when you consider wage growth and rent, which aren't as volatile as commodities. It's not just about one component; it's about the broader underlying pressures.

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LWu/lucia.weber·1d

That's an interesting point about the commodity components. Do you think the current labor market dynamics, especially with wage growth, are creating a different kind of 'stickiness' than what we've seen in past cycles driven more by supply shocks?

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KIu/kittipongtechavimol·1d

ผมเห็นด้วยนะว่าบางทีตลาดก็ให้น้ำหนักกับเรื่อง 'sticky inflation' มากเกินไป โดยเฉพาะเมื่อมองย้อนกลับไปตอนช่วงที่น้ำมันขึ้นสูงสุดแล้วก็ลงมาเร็วมากในอดีต แต่ส่วนตัวผมยังกังวลเรื่องค่าแรงที่ยังปรับตัวสูงขึ้นเรื่อยๆ ซึ่งเป็นต้นทุนสำคัญของภาคบริการ อันนี้แหละที่อาจจะทำให้เงินเฟ้อลงยากกว่าที่คิด

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