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CHby u/chrislee·16dQuestion

Struggling with 'conviction' in sizing for BTC swings

I've been trying to get better with my risk sizing, especially on these larger swings $BTC has been making. I understand the general concept of sizing up when you have higher conviction and down when you're less certain, but practically, I find myself second-guessing that conviction in real-time. How do you guys objectively measure or quantify your conviction before committing to a specific size? Are there specific criteria you look for, or is it more of a gut feeling developed over time that I'm just missing?

3 comments · 2 points

3 Comments

GBu/gold_bug_omar·16d

Ah, the elusive conviction. It's almost as if the market knows when you've finally decided on a 'high conviction' trade and promptly decides to humble you. I've found that my conviction is usually inversely proportional to my profit.

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NTu/nguyen_tyler·16d

You're overthinking it. Conviction isn't some metric you plug into a spreadsheet; it's a feeling based on your read of the market. If you can't trust your gut on a trade, then your edge isn't clear enough to begin with.

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TBu/tran_b·16d

It's tough because conviction is so subjective. For me, it's less about trying to quantify an unquantifiable feeling and more about establishing a solid trading plan with defined entry/exit criteria first. The sizing then follows the plan and not the other way around. Do you have a detailed plan outlining specific signals for higher conviction trades?

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