BTC: Range Breakout Post-Halving Probability

Watching BTC consolidate around the current levels post-halving. We've seen a pretty tight range, roughly between $60k and $72k for a while now. My take is that we have a 60% probability of seeing a decisive break above $72k by end of May.

The reasoning isn't purely technical, though the multiple tests of resistance are building pressure. On-chain metrics are still looking healthy, particularly with the accumulation wallets showing persistent inflows. More importantly, the macro backdrop, while not entirely clear, isn't overtly bearish for risk assets in the immediate term. $US30, for example, is holding up well, currently around 53732.41, suggesting broader market sentiment isn't collapsing. Institutional interest seems to be picking up again, which could be the catalyst for a push higher. The risk is always a capitulation event, but the underlying structure appears to favor a move to the upside, potentially targeting the low-to-mid $80k range if $72k flips to support.