Nikkei 30k by Q4?

Been looking at the Nikkei's trajectory lately. While the yen's weakness continues to offer some tailwind, the export data hasn't always been robust enough to push through key resistance levels with conviction. We've seen some pullbacks around the 29,500 mark consistently. My current read suggests a roughly 40% probability of hitting 30,000 by the end of Q4. The domestic demand picture, coupled with potential global slowdown concerns, presents a noticeable headwind that could cap upside unless we see a significant shift in corporate earnings outlooks or a more aggressive BOJ stance, which seems unlikely at present.

Key to this will be how global manufacturing PMIs evolve over the next couple of months and, of course, the ever-present geopolitical noise. Any significant uptick in those indicators, particularly from China, would naturally increase the odds. Conversely, continued softness keeps us range-bound. Not seeing a clear catalyst for a strong breakout just yet, more of a grind.