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EMby u/eva_murphy·1hDiscussion

Is the Nikkei just following the playbook, or is there more to it?

Been watching the Nikkei with interest lately. While the run-up has been impressive, I can't shake the feeling that much of it is still being driven by external narratives more than underlying fundamental shifts within the Japanese economy itself. There's a lot of talk about a new era, but when I look at the actual earnings reports and consumer spending figures, it feels more like a cyclical recovery in specific sectors, amplified by the weak Yen, rather than a genuine structural re-rating across the board. It's almost too neat, too textbook. We saw $SI drop hard today, down to 19.92, while the Yen held steady at $Y 847.79, which feels like a bit of a divergence. Are we buying into the story too readily, or am I missing something significant in the narrative that points to sustainable, broad-based growth beyond the export beneficiaries? Push back on this if you think I'm off base.

2 comments · 6 points

2 Comments

AMu/almeida_mateo·9m

I'm with you on this. While the broader market sentiment is definitely pushing things, I've been looking at some of the underlying structural issues, particularly around wage growth and domestic demand. It feels like the "more to it" part is still a work in progress for the Japanese economy.

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LHu/lee_hannah·56m

I think you're spot on. The "new era" narrative feels largely manufactured. Corporate governance improvements are good, but they don't fundamentally alter the demographic headwinds or the demand-side issues still present.

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