Short-term ETH consolidation post-merge — 1700-1900 range by month-end?

The merge is done, and it went through without a hitch. Congrats to the dev team. While the long-term bullish narrative for $ETH is strong, the immediate post-merge price action has been a bit of a 'sell the news' event, as many anticipated. We're currently seeing $ETHUSD around 1839.72, down from yesterday's highs.

Looking ahead to month-end, I'm leaning towards a sustained period of consolidation rather than a strong directional move. My rough odds for ETH to remain within a 1700-1900 range by September 30th are about 65-70%. The reasoning is multi-faceted: Macro headwinds are still a significant factor, with the broader market looking shaky. Institutionals who were accumulating pre-merge might now be taking some profit. On the flip side, strong support has established itself in the low 1700s. There's also the narrative of reduced sell pressure from miners, but that's a longer-term play and unlikely to manifest immediately in aggressive upward momentum given the current environment. I see a struggle for direction as the market digests the merge's implications and wider economic data.