MXNJPY: Odds on 9.300 by month-end, given current Yen weakness?

Watching the $MXNJPY cross with a morbid fascination, particularly given the backdrop of the broader $JPY weakness. We've seen $ZARJPY pushing 9.92851 and even the more staid $JPY itself at 37.0805, which, let's be honest, feels like a slow-motion car crash for anyone long the Yen. The current print for $MXNJPY at 9.236 is interesting.

My gut says there's a roughly 60% chance we tap 9.300 on $MXNJPY by the end of May. Why 60%? It's not a conviction call, more a statistical lean. The Yen continues to be the whipping boy, and while MXN isn't exactly a fortress, the sheer force of the JPY selling is likely to drag it higher. We've got a decent range today, 9.229–9.238, which suggests there's still some fight in the cross. If we get another leg down in JPY, that 9.300 mark looks very attainable. Of course, the wildcard is always some unexpected intervention from the BoJ, but given their recent track record, I wouldn't bet my lunch money on it. Just a thought, not trading advice, obviously.