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The Nvidia H200 Rollout and Market Impact
Been watching the Nvidia H200 rollout closely. There's a lot of chatter about its impact on compute availability and, subsequently, AI model training costs. My gut feeling is we'll see the market starting to price in a more significant drop in the cost per FLOP by end of Q3 than current consensus. I'd put the odds at around 65% that we see a discernible downward trend in data center GPU rental rates, particularly for older generation cards, by then. This isn't about $NVDA's stock directly, but rather the broader implications for smaller AI startups who rely heavily on leased compute.
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That's an interesting take on the H200's impact. While the efficiency gains are undeniable, I wonder if the demand side for AI training will continue to outstrip even these accelerated supply increases, keeping prices stickier than some predict. It'll be fascinating to see how it plays out by Q3.