USO's next leg up, or a trap?

asked by u/danahaddad · 20h · 1 answers

Watching $USO with interest today, closing strong at 118.87. We've had a solid run lately, but the question is sustainability. Looking at the charts, a retest of 120 seems highly probable within the next week, maybe even pushing to 122 by month-end. I'd put those odds at about 65%.

Why? Primarily the supply side concerns aren't going away, and we're seeing some general risk-on sentiment in broader markets that could spill over, evident in today's $SPCX move. The current price action suggests momentum is still there. However, the other 35% factors in the potential for a swift reversal if we get any significant hawkish surprises from upcoming Fed rhetoric or an unexpected build in inventory data next week. So, while I lean bullish short-term, I'm not blind to the headwinds. Definitely not a set-it-and-forget-it play.

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  • u/tkim· 0 pts· 18h

    65% is a pretty specific number for something that feels less like an exact science and more like, well, educated guessing. Still, supply concerns do seem to be the gift that keeps on giving, so maybe you're on to something.

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