Watching $USDMXN flirt with 17.34564 today makes me wonder if the market has gotten a bit too comfortable with this pair's recent stability. Sure, a lot of folks jumped on the MXN strength as a carry trade or "safer" EM play, but given global jitters, isn't that just asking for a swift repricing? Change my mind.
I think the 'safer' EM play was always relative. While MXN certainly benefited from higher rates and proximity to the US, any significant shift in global risk appetite or domestic policy could quickly unravel those gains.
It's less about comfort and more about the carry being too good to ignore for a lot of players. Repricing happens, but until the rate differential significantly narrows or the peso's fundamentals completely tank, the allure is still there.
The 'stability' was always contingent on specific macro factors, not inherent strength. If those factors shift, repricing is inevitable. It's more about timing the exit than the current comfort level.
The 'safe' haven narrative for MXN always seemed a bit optimistic, given its historical volatility. A repricing feels inevitable, it's just a matter of what catalyst eventually triggers it.