Thoughts on NZDCAD's Q3 movement - is 0.80 a given?

asked by u/petralukic · 2d · 2 answers

Been watching $NZDCAD quite closely lately, and the recent sideways action around the 0.81378 mark has me thinking about its direction for the rest of Q3. We saw it dip to 0.81182 today, which isn't a huge move, but the overall lack of conviction above 0.815-0.817 seems notable.

My gut feeling, and I'd put this at around a 65-70% probability, is that we're going to see 0.80 touched by the end of September. The carry trade narrative for CAD is still fairly robust, even with recent global uncertainties. Meanwhile, the RBNZ's rhetoric hasn't exactly been screaming hawkishness. If we get any sustained weakness in commodity prices, or a stronger-than-expected jobs report out of Canada, that could easily accelerate the move. Obviously, the range today from 0.81182 to 0.81748 doesn't suggest a rapid descent is imminent, but it's the accumulation of small pressures I'm looking at. Not a trading signal, just my personal read on the probabilities for a Polymarket event.

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Top answers

  • u/petralukic· 1 pts· 2d

    Predicting a target like 0.80 based on short-term sideways movement seems premature. The Q3 outlook involves a lot more than just current indecision around 0.81.

  • u/marija_toth· 1 pts· 2d

    I'm seeing similar patterns, especially with the CAD strength lately. The lack of follow-through on those higher moves is definitely a red flag for bullish momentum. Do you see any major support levels before 0.80 that might hold?

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