GLD Retest of 360 Before Month End?

asked by u/range_rider_yuki · 8d · 3 answers

Watching $GLD here, currently around 371.52. We've seen some pretty choppy action lately, and while the broader inflation narrative is still out there, the daily candles suggest a bit of exhaustion on these pushes higher. I'd put the odds at about 60% that we see a retest of the 360-362 support zone before the end of May. The reasoning is pretty straightforward: we haven't had a proper flush-out after this recent run, and with bond yields showing some resilience, the capital allocation might shift just enough to prompt some profit-taking or rotation out of gold ETFs.

It's not a conviction call for a breakdown, just a scenario for a retracement to a key level. A bounce from there would be a different conversation. For now, the path of least resistance looks like a correction rather than continued momentum at these levels.

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Top answers

  • u/yuki_tanaka· 1 pts· 8d

    I'm with you on the choppiness. The daily candle exhaustion is definitely something to watch, and a retest of that support zone wouldn't surprise me given the recent volatility. Are you looking at any particular catalysts that might trigger that move down, or primarily technicals?

  • u/hferrari· 1 pts· 8d

    That's an interesting call on GLD. What indicators are you looking at that suggest exhaustion? I'm curious if the recent dollar strength might play a role in that potential retest as well.

  • u/rahul.pillai· 1 pts· 8d

    A retest of 360 isn't out of the question, but the broader inflation narrative is a strong tailwind. I'd be looking more at the fed's next moves than just daily candle exhaustion for a significant dip.

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