Is the ECB underestimating the drag of persistent inflation?

asked by u/vsiddiqui · 10d · 0 answers

It feels like the ECB is still playing catch-up, and their recent commentary suggests a bit too much optimism about inflation cooling off naturally. While we've seen some core numbers ease, the sticky components, particularly services and wages, seem stubbornly high. Watching the $NZDJPY today, holding its range around 94.943, feels like a market still trying to figure out what a truly hawkish central bank looks like, even in the Pacific.

My take is they're risking a policy error by not leaning harder into tighter conditions, which could prolong the pain and potentially lead to a more severe downturn later. Am I being overly pessimistic, or do others feel a similar sense of unease about their current stance? Push back if you think I'm off base.

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