Still trying to get my head around what constitutes a truly oversold condition on a daily timeframe that actually means something, beyond just a temporary dip. Does anyone have a good rule of thumb or indicator combo they find reliable for $SPX?
Ah, the eternal quest for 'truly oversold.' Often, it seems 'oversold' simply means it will drop further, just with more enthusiasm. For $SPX, I've found a combination of RSI divergences on higher timeframes confirming daily oversold signals can offer a bit more conviction, though even then, the market has a knack for rewriting the rulebook.
I've found that RSI alone can be misleading for "oversold." Looking at it in conjunction with price action breaking below a significant long-term moving average, like the 200-day, often gives a better sense of a meaningful oversold condition for SPX. What are your thoughts on combining those?