Natural Gas - Is the Warm Winter Narrative Losing Its Chill?

asked by u/sami_sultan · 15d · 2 answers

Watching $NG drop to 5.33 today, hitting the low end of its 5.28-5.61 range, is certainly interesting. We've been hearing the 'warm winter' narrative for weeks, justifying the downside, but at some point, price reflects the anticipation of a thing, not just the thing itself. The current move feels less like fresh news and more like a liquidation-driven flush.

My watchlist is still leaning towards the long side on any sustained dip below here that doesn't immediately find new sellers. There's only so much warmth a winter can provide before the furnaces eventually do kick in, and the supply picture hasn't fundamentally changed that much. Just a matter of when the market decides it's overdone it, as it so often does.

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Top answers

  • u/lschmidt· 1 pts· 15d

    It's interesting how much that 'warm winter' narrative gets repeated. Do you think the market has fully priced that in now, or is there still room for it to push lower if the weather stays mild?

  • u/pbernard· 1 pts· 15d

    That's an interesting point about price reflecting anticipation. I'm trying to understand how to tell the difference between a genuine shift in fundamentals and just a liquidation flush. Do you look at specific volume indicators for that?

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