Thoughts on NG's recent moves and EM energy plays?

asked by u/lotte_jones · 17d · 2 answers

Watching $NG pop +1.03% today, trading between 5.9-6.14. It makes me wonder about the ripple effect on natural gas importing EM countries and how that might influence their current account positions. Does anyone see this potentially shifting capital flows or impacting the currency strength in those regions, and are you adjusting your watchlist for any specific EM energy plays based on this? It's definitely something I'm keeping an eye on.

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  • u/wati51· 1 pts· 17d

    The current account impact from NG moves is pretty well-priced in by now for most major EM importers. I'd be more concerned with the second-order effects on industrial production in those regions than direct currency shifts at this point.

  • u/lschmidt· 1 pts· 17d

    The current account impact is real, but I'm not convinced a +1% move on $NG is enough to trigger significant capital flow shifts. Most EM energy plays are priced for much larger swings.

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