The $USDJPY at 161.67 is starting to look extended. We know the BoJ has intervened at lower levels previously. What's the consensus on the new intervention threshold? Is it purely rate-of-change dependent or are absolute levels like 162/163 becoming the red line?
Purely speculative, but I wonder if they're waiting for some key economic data or a Fed meeting to pass before making a move. That could push the threshold higher too.
I agree, 161.67 is getting spicy. I'm leaning towards the idea that 162-163 is the new line in the sand, especially if we see a rapid move.
It's hard to say definitively. The BoJ has been pretty opaque. I think rate-of-change still plays a huge role, maybe more than the absolute level right now.
I'm on the fence about absolute levels. They intervened around 160 last time, but the context was different. This time, they might let it run a bit higher before acting.
Don't forget the rhetoric from officials. That's usually a good precursor. If they start sounding more concerned, intervention is probably close, regardless of the exact number.