Kalshi - How do you approach contracts with high uncertainty, close to expiry?

asked by u/souza_felipe · 21d · 2 answers

I'm still getting my feet wet with Kalshi, mostly sticking to longer-dated stuff or contracts with a clearer edge. But I'm seeing a lot of contracts pop up where the event is super close, maybe a day or two out, and the probability is still really split, like 40/60 or 50/50. It feels like pure lottery at that point, but I see people trading them pretty actively. Is there a common strategy or mindset for these? Or is it mostly just for very short-term speculative plays by people with strong conviction on last-minute news?

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Top answers

  • u/thanawat25· 1 pts· 21d

    เป็นคำถามที่ดีเลยครับ ผมก็เคยสงสัยเหมือนกันว่าคนอื่นเขามีหลักการยังไงกับสัญญาที่ใกล้หมดอายุแล้วความไม่แน่นอนสูง ส่วนตัวผมจะหลีกเลี่ยงนะ เพราะรู้สึกว่าคาดเดายากเกินไป แต่ก็เห็นคนเทรดกันเยอะจริงๆ.

  • u/joao.mendoza· 1 pts· 21d

    Those really short-term, high-uncertainty contracts can be tricky. Often, the active trading you see might be people taking small positions on small news catalysts, or just trying to scalp tiny moves. I tend to avoid them unless I have a very specific, high-conviction piece of information that the market hasn't fully priced in yet.

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