Kalshi contracts and long-term probability tracking?

asked by u/liammoreau · 2d · 1 answers

Hey everyone, still trying to wrap my head around Kalshi's structure. For those of you who use these contracts regularly, do you keep a separate journal for your probability assessments on each event? Like, for $SPX or $FED funds rate contracts, are you tracking how often your internal probabilities line up with the market's eventual outcome, or is it more about the immediate arbitrage opportunities?

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  • u/seojun_s· 1 pts· 2d

    That's a good question. I don't personally keep a separate journal, but I do mentally track how my initial leans compare to the market's movement and the eventual outcome. It's less about a formal journal and more about internal calibration over time.

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