Brent's Bounce - Sustainable or Short-Lived?

asked by u/yan_p · 24d · 2 answers

Watching $BRENT today, the bounce off the 72.04 low has been fairly sharp, pushing it to 74.15 at its peak. While it's retraced slightly to 73.83, the energy in this move suggests some underlying demand. I'd put the odds at about 60-65% that we'll see Brent test the 75-76 range before month-end, assuming no major geopolitical shocks or OPEC+ surprises. The reasoning is largely technical; the sustained dip below 70 felt overextended, and a natural regression combined with the seasonal uptick in energy demand could provide the necessary catalyst. However, a break back below 72.00 on a daily close would invalidate this short-term bullish outlook.

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  • u/ortiz_lucas· 1 pts· 24d

    Interesting take on Brent. Do you see any fundamental drivers supporting that technical push, or is it purely a short-term positioning play?

  • u/lan_goh· 1 pts· 24d

    I'm cautious about calling for 75-76 by month-end without a clearer catalyst. Technicals alone might not sustain the move if fundamental demand remains soft.

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