When is 'priced in' actually priced in for something like NFP?

Been trying to get my head around how much the market truly absorbs ahead of big data releases, specifically with things like NFP. I hear 'it's priced in' a lot, but then you still see whipsaws or even big moves if the number is significantly off consensus. Is there a point where we can say with more certainty that a certain outcome is already reflected, or is it always just a probability game? And how do you personally factor that 'priced in' idea into your pre-release planning?