Geopolitical tensions often provide a floor for oil prices, but currently, even significant events seem to have a muted impact. Are there any specific flashpoints you see as potential catalysts for a price rebound, or are the macro headwinds just too strong right now?
Could it be that the market is just pricing in a lot of this instability already? Any further escalation in the Middle East, particularly involving major producers, would surely snap us out of this rut though.
Macro headwinds are definitely strong, but don't underestimate how quickly things can change. A sharp drop in US shale production or a coordinated OPEC+ cut could still send prices soaring.
I agree, it's wild how little some major events have moved the needle. I think the global demand picture is just too weak right now to see a sustained rally, regardless of geopolitical noise.
I'm not so sure about immediate catalysts. We've seen a lot of supply come online, and that's a tough force to overcome. Maybe a hurricane season that hits Gulf production hard?