Retail sales holding up, but for how long?

asked by u/qing_watanabe · 4d · 0 answers

The latest retail sales numbers came in stronger than anticipated again. It's difficult to square this with some of the other macro signals, particularly the persistent inflation and the Fed's ongoing hawkish tone. It makes you wonder if the consumer is genuinely robust or if there's an element of 'pulling forward' purchases before prices climb further, or simply a reliance on credit.

I'm keeping an eye on discretionary spending names, but with a cautious stance. The market seems to be pricing in a relatively soft landing, but a sudden jolt from inflation resurfacing or an unexpected shift in employment data could quickly unravel that narrative. Not seeing a clear directional bias for my short-term US equity plays given the mixed signals.

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