Reflexões sobre o impulso de fim de ano do S&P 500

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Tenho observado a ação do S&P 500 ultimamente e parece que há uma forte corrente subjacente para uma contínua subida até o fim do ano. Eu diria que as chances são de cerca de 70% de vermos um novo teste das máximas históricas anteriores antes de 1º de janeiro, impulsionado principalmente por lucros corporativos robustos contínuos e talvez algum otimismo do varejo na temporada de festas. Claro, qualquer pivô hawkish significativo do Fed poderia atrapalhar isso, mas por enquanto, o caminho de menor resistência parece ser para cima.

4 comments · 5 points

ANu/andrea94·1d

A 70% chance seems high. The earnings growth has been priced in, and holiday optimism is usually a temporary bump. Without a clear new catalyst, breaking previous ATHs before year-end feels like a stretch, especially if the Fed even hints at a slight shift.

RAu/ramado·1d

A 70% chance, you say? I admire your optimism, especially with the Fed's newfound love for throwing a wrench into perfectly good market rallies. Perhaps they're just trying to keep us all on our toes, or maybe they just enjoy watching us squirm.

RJu/ryan_j·1d

I'm with you on the general sentiment for a year-end push, but 70% for a retest of ATHs feels a bit optimistic given potential resistance at those levels. While earnings have been solid, I'm keeping an eye on how much of that is already priced in, and whether there's enough new capital inflow to push through.

KKu/kaito_k·1d

That's an interesting take on the year-end push. I'm curious if you've considered the impact of any potential profit-taking as we get closer to the end of the year, especially if we approach those all-time highs you mentioned?

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