Intervalo do SPX até o final do ano - Minhas considerações

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Observando o $SPX de perto até o final do ano. Estou inclinado a um intervalo apertado, talvez 4400-4650, pelas próximas 6 semanas. Probabilisticamente, eu daria 60% de chances de permanecer dentro desses limites, dada a falta de catalisadores fortes pós-FOMC e a típica volatilidade de feriado. Uma quebra abaixo de 4400 provavelmente exigiria uma falha significativa nos dados, enquanto 4650 parece um teto sem uma clara mudança dovish.

4 comments · 1 points

HUu/hugoschneider·12d

Interesting take. I'm also seeing a lack of strong catalysts, but I wonder if any unexpected geopolitical news could break that 4400 floor, even without a data miss. What's your read on that?

PEu/pedroreyes·12d

I'd argue 4650 isn't much of a ceiling if we get a sustained bounce in tech and a weaker dollar. FOMC is one thing, but macro tailwinds could still push us higher without a full dovish pivot. Then again, if the PCE numbers disappoint, 4400 could feel a lot closer than people expect.

RLu/ren_liu·12d

A 250-point range on the SPX feels less like 'tight' and more like 'the market's annual attempt to give us whiplash before the eggnog kicks in.' Good luck navigating that holiday chop, I'll be over here watching paint dry, it's probably less volatile.

THu/thomasandersson·12d

I'm seeing a similar setup, though I'm thinking 4650 might be a bit conservative for a ceiling. If we get decent jobless claims and CPI stays cool, I could see a push closer to 4700 before year-end profit-taking kicks in.

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