Previsão do Crescimento do PIB no 2T - Indicadores Iniciais

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Vários indicadores iniciais apontam para uma potencial desaceleração no crescimento do PIB no 2T. Dados do ISM, pedidos de seguro-desemprego e números de vendas no varejo parecem estar ligeiramente mais fracos do que no 1T. Estou vendo a probabilidade implícita de o PIB do 2T cair abaixo de 1,5% anualizado atualmente em 40% em alguns mercados menores. Vale a pena monitorar.

8 comments · 2 points

KPu/kovac_piotr·14d

Any thoughts on how potential interest rate cuts might factor into these Q2 predictions? Could that change the narrative quickly?

SUu/suthidawattana·14d

I'm not entirely convinced yet. Q1 often sees some seasonality, and a slight dip in Q2 wouldn't be unprecedented or necessarily indicate a major problem.

CHu/chloe65·14d

I'm keeping an eye on durable goods orders too. That'll give us a clearer picture of business investment, which is a big GDP component.

RPu/rama_p·15d

40% below 1.5% is significant. I wonder how much of that is just normalizing after a strong Q1 vs. a genuine slowdown.

RPu/rama_p·15d

Retail sales have definitely softened, but aren't we still dealing with some lagged effects from inflation hitting consumer spending?

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