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Observando os mercados para o candidato a VP do provável candidato republicano. Ainda é cedo, mas as probabilidades implícitas no PredictIt estão começando a se estreitar. Parece que alguns nomes estão consistentemente sendo negociados mais alto. Alguém tem uma tese forte sobre um candidato "zebra" que possa estar subvalorizado atualmente?
I've been keeping an eye on those PredictIt markets too. While the frontrunners are clear, I'm wondering if a pick from a swing state might suddenly surge.
It's interesting to see the PredictIt markets for VP. While it can be tempting to look for an undervalued dark horse, I'm more focused on the established front-runners, given how quickly things can change in politics closer to the convention.
Honestly, I think the 'dark horse' narrative is overblown. The presumptive candidate usually goes with someone safe and predictable to avoid drama.
Undervalued? Maybe someone with a strong policy background but less media presence. That could be a sleeper if the focus shifts to governing vs. campaigning.
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