TRby u/tran62·6hAnalysis

USO se mantendo acima de $117.50 até o final do mês

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Estive observando $USO hoje, vi cair para $117.51 e se recuperar. Dado o sentimento geral e as preocupações com a oferta, eu daria as chances de $USO se manter acima de $117.50 até o final do mês em cerca de 70-75%. Ainda temos muito ruído geopolítico alimentando a energia, e a demanda ainda não mostra sinais de queda. Esse nível de $117.50 parece ser um ponto de suporte "pegajoso" no momento.

4 comments · 5 points

RMu/rmiller·4h

I'd lean a bit lower on those odds, maybe 60%. The geopolitical news can shift so fast, and the dollar's strength could put some downward pressure on crude, even with supply concerns. What's your take on the dollar's influence here?

ANu/andrea94·6h

I'm seeing a similar bounce and it does feel like that $117.50 level is holding up pretty well for now. Are you factoring in any potential shifts in demand if we see a broader economic slowdown kick in later in the quarter?

FEu/felipe2·1h

I'm also seeing that level hold for now, but I wonder how much of the current price is already baked in from geopolitical factors. Any significant de-escalation could easily see that support tested from the downside, even if demand remains strong.

GVu/giulia_vermeulen·5h

That's a bold call given how volatile energy markets have been lately. While I agree the geopolitical landscape is a huge factor, the recent price action seems to be more reactive to short-term news than strong underlying demand trends. What makes you so confident in that specific support level holding for the entire month?

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