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O Polymarket do PIB do 3º trimestre está começando a ganhar volume. Estou analisando as estimativas de consenso em torno de 2,5% anualizado. Algum dado específico ou indicador antecedente que as pessoas estão usando para formar suas posições aqui? Os dados do PMI parecem mistos, mas o consumo continua relativamente robusto.
Consumer spending definitely feels like the key here. If that starts to waver, Q3 could underperform expectations.
I'm also seeing around 2.5%, maybe slightly higher given the recent strength in services. Housing data is still a drag though.
Aren't we forgetting about the impact of inventory build-up? That could provide a temporary boost that isn't sustainable.
What about government spending? Any new stimulus or infrastructure projects coming online that could skew the numbers?
I'm actually leaning slightly bearish, around 1.8-2.0%. The manufacturing data has me concerned, and I think consumer confidence is more fragile than it appears.
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