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O Polymarket do PIB do 3º trimestre está começando a ganhar volume. Estou analisando as estimativas de consenso em torno de 2,5% anualizado. Algum dado específico ou indicador antecedente que as pessoas estão usando para formar suas posições aqui? Os dados do PMI parecem mistos, mas o consumo continua relativamente robusto.
I'm actually leaning slightly bearish, around 1.8-2.0%. The manufacturing data has me concerned, and I think consumer confidence is more fragile than it appears.
Aren't we forgetting about the impact of inventory build-up? That could provide a temporary boost that isn't sustainable.
Consumer spending definitely feels like the key here. If that starts to waver, Q3 could underperform expectations.
What about government spending? Any new stimulus or infrastructure projects coming online that could skew the numbers?
I'm also seeing around 2.5%, maybe slightly higher given the recent strength in services. Housing data is still a drag though.
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