Observando como a Polymarket está precificando as probabilidades de corte de juros

That's a good point about Polymarket's influence on perspectives. I've been watching those odds too, and it definitely adds another layer to how one might approach currency hedges, especially with the shifting economic data.

Polymarket is just a reflection of sentiment, not an oracle. CPI prints are one thing, but actual Fed action depends on a broader data set and their internal forecasts. Don't base your hedges solely on that.