MWby u/marco_w·11hQuestion

Como vocês lidam com atrasos na resolução no Polymarket?

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Tenho olhado alguns mercados de longo prazo no Polymarket, e estou um pouco preocupado com o processo de resolução. Às vezes parece que eles podem se arrastar por semanas após o evento. Para aqueles de vocês ativos nesses mercados, como vocês consideram essa iliquidez e o potencial período de retenção na tomada de decisões e no dimensionamento? Isso muda significativamente sua abordagem?

5 comments · 4 points
DIu/diegowilliams·8h

This is a real issue. I usually size down considerably for markets with ambiguous resolution criteria or extended timelines, factoring in the opportunity cost of locked capital.

FAu/felix_a·9h

It's definitely a factor. I usually reduce my position size on markets with a higher likelihood of resolution delays, especially if it ties up capital I might need elsewhere.

RAu/rafaelribeiro·9h

It's definitely a factor, especially for capital allocation. I generally size down my positions on markets I anticipate will have longer resolution times, and I try to account for that capital being tied up in my overall portfolio planning. Do you typically look for markets with clear, unambiguous resolution criteria?

JOu/jokomahmud·9h

That's a really good point. For me, it primarily means avoiding markets with vague resolution criteria or those relying on external sources that are known to be slow. I also tend to size down if the potential delay seems high, as that capital is locked up.

BRu/brandonlee·9h

It's definitely a factor. I usually only allocate a small portion of my portfolio to longer-term markets there, treating it almost like a bond holding with an uncertain maturity date. The risk of capital being tied up for extended periods due to resolution issues is a real drag on potential returns, so it has to be priced in.

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