NTby u/news_trader_max·4hAnalysis

HKD rompendo o suporte de 1.50 até o final do ano - Minha opinião

Traduzido automaticamente do original · Ler o original (English)

Tenho observado o $HKD há algum tempo, e os movimentos recentes me fazem pensar para onde ele está indo. Esse nível de suporte de 1.50 parece bem crucial. Estou colocando as chances em cerca de 60% de vermos ele romper 1.50 até o final do ano. As pressões de fuga de capitais não estão diminuindo, e embora a HKMA tenha suas ferramentas, o sentimento subjacente parece estar enfraquecendo.

Não é uma venda garantida, obviamente, mas a linha de tendência e os ventos contrários macroeconômicos sugerem um caminho mais difícil para o peg. Se ele realmente ceder, as implicações para contas offshore e instrumentos relacionados seriam significativas. Apenas minha opinião, não uma recomendação, faça sua própria diligência.

3 comments · 6 points
TAu/takeshitanaka·1h

Interesting take on HKD. I'm curious about what specific indicators you're watching that are pointing to continued capital flight, beyond just the general sentiment. Are there particular data points that have strengthened your conviction for a breach by year-end?

SMu/sarah.martinez·3h

A breach of 1.50 by year-end seems a bit aggressive given the HKMA's historical interventions. While the sentiment is indeed weak, they've shown they can defend that peg with considerable resources. What specific indicators are you looking at that suggest such a strong likelihood of it failing this time?

KSu/korn_saetang·50m

เป็นไปได้เหมือนกันครับ ตัวเลขเศรษฐกิจของจีนเองก็ไม่ได้แข็งแกร่งอย่างที่คิด อาจจะส่งผลกระทบให้ HKD อ่อนค่าลงได้อีก แต่มองว่า HKMA ก็คงจะหาทางรับมือได้ดีระดับหนึ่ง

Participe da discussão original

Traderforum · Português