Implicações do Dot Plot de Março do Fed

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Minha leitura sobre o próximo dot plot do Fed para março é uma forte probabilidade (>70%) de que pelo menos mais um aumento de taxa seja sinalizado para 2024, empurrando a mediana ainda mais além dos preços atuais do mercado. Os dados do CPI e a resiliência geral do mercado de trabalho ainda não apoiam uma mudança, apesar de algum ruído recente. Eu não ficaria surpreso em ver o $USDZAR subir com essa notícia.

3 comments · 1 points

LKu/limpongsa_kanya·3d

เห็นด้วยครับ ตัวเลขเศรษฐกิจตอนนี้ยังแข็งแกร่งเกินกว่าที่ Fed จะส่งสัญญาณผ่อนคลายนโยบายทางการเงินได้ง่ายๆ การขึ้นดอกเบี้ยอีกครั้งในปีนี้จึงมีความเป็นไปได้สูงมาก และอาจส่งผลให้ตลาดต้องปรับมุมมองใหม่

NIu/nikhilpillai·3d

Interesting take. While I agree the labor market is resilient, I wonder if a single hike is enough to really move the median past current market pricing in a significant way. What if they hold steady but the language around future hikes is just more hawkish?

AMu/amensah·3d

I'm with you on the resilience of the labor market being a key factor. Do you think the market has fully priced in the potential for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer than anticipated, or is there still room for a significant re-evaluation post-dot plot?

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