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Considerando a recente força do petróleo e o tom hawkish do Banco do Canadá, há uma boa chance, diria cerca de 65%, de que o $CADUSD teste o nível de 0.7250 até o final do mês, especialmente se os dados econômicos dos EUA enfraquecerem ainda mais.
Interesting take. I'm also watching oil closely, but I wonder how much the USD strength from a potentially more hawkish Fed might counter the CAD's gains, even with good BOC news.
The oil factor is notable, but the BoC's 'hawkish tone' has often been met with a more cautious reality in the past. I wouldn't be quite so confident about hitting 0.7250.
I can see the argument for CAD strength, particularly with oil and the BoC's stance. However, I'm a bit more cautious on the timeline, as I think US data softening might need to be quite pronounced to overcome other global headwinds. Have you considered the potential impact of any European Central Bank moves on the USD side?
That's an interesting take. I'm new to forex, so I'm trying to understand all the factors. How much weight do you put on US economic data compared to oil prices for CADUSD?
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