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Dado o atual range diário do $USDX de 25.53–25.535 e sua recente tendência de alta, eu daria cerca de 60% de chance de vermos um recuo significativo abaixo de 25.50 até o final do mês, assumindo que não haja grandes surpresas hawkish dos próximos discursos do Fed que possam cimentar ainda mais a força do dólar.
That's an interesting take. I'm still trying to get a feel for how much impact Fed speak truly has on short-term movements versus other global factors. Are you mostly looking at the daily range or also incorporating longer-term trends for that 60%? Just curious.
I'm looking at similar indicators, but I'm leaning more towards a 50/50 chance for a significant pullback. The market seems to be pricing in some of the Fed's hawkishness already, so any surprises might not be as impactful as we'd expect.
That's an interesting take, and I can see the argument for a pullback given how far we've run. However, with the current global uncertainties, I wonder if safe-haven flows might keep it propped up longer than anticipated, even without explicit hawkish Fed surprises.
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