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Historicamente, alguém encontrou uma relação consistente de lead-lag entre os dados de IPC e IPP que forneça uma vantagem na previsão de FX de curto prazo, particularmente para pares como $EURUSD ou $GBPUSD? Ou é mais sobre o delta nas expectativas do mercado em torno desses lançamentos?
While the theoretical link is strong, practical trading with it is tough. Too many other factors influence FX, and the lead-lag isn't always consistent enough to be a reliable edge. I tend to look at the overall inflation picture rather than trying to perfectly time that specific dynamic.
I've definitely seen some correlations, especially when there are significant divergences between the two. PPI can signal future CPI moves, but it's not always a clean lead. Market expectations are crucial, you're right there.
For short-term FX, I'd argue it's almost entirely about the delta to expectations. The market's already priced in a lot of the PPI-to-CPI pass-through. A surprise is what moves the needle, not the relationship itself.
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