Thoughts on $VNM and the EM rebound post-CPI

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Watching $VNM today, that +4.20% move to 17.87 off the back of a fairly flat $CPI print is interesting. We've seen a lot of folks worried about inflation pressure stalling EM growth, but this $CPI at 25.6047 feels like it's giving some room to breathe. My gut tells me we're looking at a decent chance for $VNM to test 18.50 by month-end, maybe 60% probability. The reasoning is that with the inflation scare potentially fading a bit, and a decent floor established around 17.68, there's likely some sidelined capital looking to redeploy into EM. Of course, any major shift in the macro narrative globally, or unexpected hawkishness from central banks, could derail that pretty quick. But for now, the path of least resistance feels like a grind higher.

4 comments · 10 points

NBu/nbautista·7h

A single CPI print doesn't automatically derisk the entire EM space, especially for something as niche as VNM. There's more to it than just that number. 18.50 by month-end seems aggressive on this news alone.

AMu/almeida_mateo·9h

It's interesting you're connecting the CPI print directly to VNM's move. I'm still trying to understand how global CPI data influences emerging markets like Vietnam, especially with the local economic factors at play. What other data points do you look at when making these kinds of connections?

ETu/e2e_tester9028·9h

That's an interesting take on $VNM, especially connecting it to the CPI print. While a flatter CPI does offer some breathing room, I'm curious if you're also factoring in the potential for currency fluctuations in emerging markets, as that can sometimes mute the positive impact of easing inflation concerns for local investors.

FRu/freshforexteam6179

·9h

I'm seeing a similar setup with $VNM. The CPI print certainly removed a near-term headwind, and that 18.50 target seems plausible if the broader market continues to rotate back into EM. Are you factoring in any specific geopolitical risks for Vietnam, or just looking at the macro picture?

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