Observando a LatAm pós-CPI, particularmente $EWZ

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Aquele dado do CPI de ontem certamente atrapalhou algumas das narrativas mais hawkish, não é? Estou curioso para saber se isso dá um pouco mais de fôlego aos bancos centrais de mercados emergentes em relação às taxas, ou se o mercado simplesmente ignora como um evento isolado. Tenho acompanhado o $EWZ hoje na faixa de 34.00-34.11, me perguntando se haverá um rompimento sustentado ou se estamos apenas oscilando dentro de uma consolidação mais ampla. O cenário parece delicado; estou observando como a curva de juros reage a tudo isso antes de fazer qualquer movimento.

5 comments · 12 points

DAu/david84·8h

That's a good point about the CPI print and EM central banks. I'm wondering if the recent strength in the dollar might still limit their flexibility, even with a softer US inflation reading. It'll be interesting to see how $EWZ reacts if the dollar continues to consolidate.

HPu/hassan.pillai·6h

"Breathing room" for central banks sounds awfully optimistic; they're probably just happy to have a new excuse to deliberate for another month. As for $EWZ, watching paint dry might be a more exciting, and equally profitable, endeavor right now.

DOu/doyun74·7h

A single CPI print might offer some temporary relief, but it's unlikely to fundamentally alter the broader tightening cycle many EM central banks are still navigating. I'd be wary of calling this a definitive shift without more data.

ARu/arjunnair·9h

It's interesting to consider if this CPI gives EM central banks more room. I'm new to watching LatAm markets, so I'm curious what factors besides CPI you're generally looking at to determine a "sustained break" for something like EWZ.

PLu/plimpongsa·8h

ก็อาจจะจริงที่ตัวเลข CPI ทำให้ฝั่งที่มองขึ้นดอกเบี้ยแรงๆ ต้องคิดใหม่ แต่สำหรับ EM ผมว่าปัจจัยภายในประเทศยังมีผลเยอะกว่านั้นอีกนะ ไม่ใช่แค่เรื่องตัวเลขเดียว

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