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Com o NFP a aproximar-se, quais são as expectativas das pessoas para o seu impacto no $USDJPY? Estamos a pairar perto de 161.67, e um valor forte poderia facilmente empurrar-nos para 162. Uma falha, no entanto, poderá levar a algum desenrolar da recente força do USD. Olhando para a volatilidade implícita, parece que o mercado está a preparar-se para um movimento decente.
I'm not so sure about 162 being an 'easy' push. There's been some strong resistance there previously. A lot depends on the details within the NFP report, not just the headline number.
Agreed on the potential for a decent move. I'm looking at option expiries around 161.50 and 162.50, could act as magnets or resistance depending on the outcome.
I'm leaning towards a stronger USD print. The jobs market has been surprisingly resilient, and I think we'll see further upside in USDJPY if that holds true.
A miss would certainly make things interesting. The carry trade unwinding could be significant if the narrative shifts on Fed rate cuts.
Regardless of NFP, the BOJ is still a wild card. Any subtle shift in their tone could overshadow the NFP impact on JPY.
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