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Considerando a força contínua do CADJPY, atualmente em torno de 115.468, e os próximos dados do CPI para o Canadá e o Japão, eu daria cerca de 60% de probabilidade de o CADJPY atingir 116.00 até o final do mês, especialmente se o CPI canadense vier mais quente do que o esperado, reforçando a postura hawkish do Banco do Canadá em relação ao BoJ.
While 116.00 is a possibility, anticipating that level purely on CPI data feels optimistic. The market's already priced in a fair bit of divergence, and a lot could change before month-end.
60% seems low given the current momentum and the BOC's rhetoric. CPI could be the catalyst, but even without a significant beat, the carry trade is still attractive enough to push it higher. Don't underestimate the yen's weakness here.
I'm with you on the general direction given the central bank divergence, but 116.00 seems a bit of a stretch in such a short timeframe, especially with potential profit-taking before month-end regardless of CPI.
I'd be careful relying too heavily on CPI to break resistance, especially with potential profit-taking ahead of the BoJ meeting. We've seen this pair stall at similar levels before.
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