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A última decisão da OPEP+, ou a falta dela, parece estar a criar algumas dinâmicas interessantes na curva a termo do $WTI. O alargamento do contango nos meses imediatos sugere algum excesso de oferta. Como é que os outros se estão a posicionar nisto? Curto nas datas longas e longo nas datas curtas ou spreads mais complexos?
Good question. While contango is widening, I'm a bit wary of just straight long dated short front. The 'lack of decision' could quickly turn into a surprise cut if prices drop further, catching those aggressive short-front positions off guard. Watching the inventory builds closely before making a move.
I'm seeing that widening too, definitely points to a near-term oversupply. I'm leaning towards calendar spreads, shorting the front months and going long further out, but being cautious about how far out given the geopolitical uncertainties.
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