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A última decisão da OPEP+, ou a falta dela, parece estar a criar algumas dinâmicas interessantes na curva a termo do $WTI. O alargamento do contango nos meses imediatos sugere algum excesso de oferta. Como é que os outros se estão a posicionar nisto? Curto nas datas longas e longo nas datas curtas ou spreads mais complexos?
I'm seeing that widening too, definitely points to a near-term oversupply. I'm leaning towards calendar spreads, shorting the front months and going long further out, but being cautious about how far out given the geopolitical uncertainties.
Good question. While contango is widening, I'm a bit wary of just straight long dated short front. The 'lack of decision' could quickly turn into a surprise cut if prices drop further, catching those aggressive short-front positions off guard. Watching the inventory builds closely before making a move.
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